On the Drama of COP18

ESTRAGON: He should be here.

VLADIMIR: He didn't say for sure he'd come.

ESTRAGON: And if he doesn't come?

VLADIMIR: We'll come back tomorrow.

ESTRAGON: And then the day after tomorrow.

VLADIMIR: Possibly.

ESTRAGON: And so on.

 (warning and apology: this post may take longer to read than one might desire)

“I don’t get it, its getting kind of boring.  They are all saying that talks are progressing but nothing is happening.  Even the NGOS won’t tell me anything.  Even when I provoke them a little bit and say, ‘hey, come on, you know they aren’t moving fast enough’.  I just don’t get it, whats going on?”

I’m sitting in a Qatari journalists’ car and we are stuck in traffic.   He is new to the climate scene and has no idea what is going on.  His instincts are that a landmark deal is not progressing despite the urgency of climate change, and is confused by the lack of drama drama about this mismatch.  Why did 15 000 people fly all the way to Qatar if they are not going to forge a new climate deal?  What is COP18 about, anyway?   
------------------------------------

COP18 is the ultimate bureaucratic COP.  It is full of processes that hide underlying tensions.  For those emeshed in the process, it is a pivtoal moment of global transition and opportunity.  However, for those standing outside the inner machinery of the UNFCCC, it is, as one NGO representative exclaims, “worse than watching paint dry”.

The UN started climate negotiations and formed the UNFCCC in 1992.  The first major agreement stemming from this was the Kyoto Protocol which was signed in 1997.  The KP (as they call it here) had an initial phase of emission reductions that was supposed to end in 2012.  The original plan was that developed countries only would bear emission reduction burdens for this first phase, and then, once they had made significant reductions and developed some lessons about the best ways to do this, a second round of emission reduction targets would be established which would involve other countries.

------------------------------

“Erg.  I’m still not up on these 21^st century technologies” complains an older European delegate while waving his arms futily.  He is standing in front of a white board with a barcode on it.  COP18 has become paperless and the once crowded document distribution desks have disappeared in a sophisticaed “Paper Smart” system whereby delegates can simply scan bar codes with their smart phones and automatically download  the days meeting schedule.  As I too have not yet joined the 21^st century, the delegate and I move on towards one of the TV screens on which the days meeting schedule is scrolled through.

At first I think I have misread.  But no.  On the 12^th line down, it states:

“AWG-LCA  13:00 – 23:59      Agreed Outcomes       Meeting Room 2”

This – a meeting which is scheduled to last for at least 12 hours – is one of the things COP18 is about.

----------------------------

After Kyoto was signed everyone drew a deep sigh of relief.  All that had to happen now was for developed countries to go home and cut some emissions.  However, by 2007 it dawned on people that the Kyoto Protocol was going to soon reach the end of its first phase, nothing was yet on the table to follow it, and global emissions were skyrocketing.  Thus emerged the AWG-LCA – the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term Co-operative Action. 

The AWG-LCA negotiation track has evolved into a catch-all for all the strategies that Parties have invented to contribute to the the myriad goals of a climate agreement.  Since goals for a climate agreement are diverse and include cutting emissions, promoting human development and helping countries adapt to climate change, the LCA has dealt with everything from technology transfer to climate finance to the rules of trading systems.  Since 2007 there have been TWO simultaneous negotiation tracks – one for the Kyoto Protocol, one for the LCA.

Thinking ahead, negotiators put an expiration date on the AWG-LCA to match the Kyoto Protocol.  They declared that it should have “agreed outcomes” by 2012, with the intention that a single, comprehensive deal would be reached by then.   However, here we are and we still do not have a global deal.  What we have instead is yet a THIRD negotiating track – the AWG-ADP.

---------------------------------

The Ad-hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (which has evolved into the acronym AWG-ADP) was dramatically born in a “huddle” during the wee hours of the night the day after COP17 was supposed to have finished in Durban (see my post from December 2011 for a description).   When it arrived on the scene it did not have emission targets, it did not have mechanisms, it did not have rules, and it did not have a workplan.  What it did have was an agreement to start talking about a global climate deal that would include all countries.

What makes the development of the ADP so crucial to this story is that is represents the potential for an entirely new climate deal.  To date climate negotiations have been bitterly divided along different ideas of equity and responsibility.  Developing nations were excempt from obligations in the Kyoto Protocol because they argued that developed nations should reduce their emissions first since they had caused the problem.  Developed nations have argued that the world today is radically different than the world of 20 years ago, and that developing countries with rapidly increasing wealth and emissions must also start mitigation action because the bulk of future emissions will come from developing countries. Few details are yet determined about the ADP, but one thing is clear.  In a radical shift from the KP, the ADP will involve all countries and the old "firewall" between developed and developing countries will be removed.  

------------------------------

The central bureaucratic challenge of COP18 is that the fates of the AWG-ADP and the AWG-LCA negotiating tracks are entwined. On one hand, if the AWG-ADP is a workable, credible, long-term agreement,  then the AWG-LCA could be closed as there would no longer be a need for a separate set of negotiations about long term cooperation.   On the other hand, until the ADP is set in stone, closing the AWG-LCA might leave debates about key issues like technology transfer, the development of market mechanisms, and financial support to developing countries without a designated negotiation “home”.

As the delegate from Brazil pleads, “none of us want next year’s discussion to be the same, we have to be more open than we are at the moment”.   Simultaneously, as the delegate from Guatamala points out, “if we are too open we do not have enough guidance and will not be able to get an agreement next year”.  Success of the ADP requires openness.  Success for the LCA requires clarity and closure.  It's no wonder negotiators face a 12 hour meeting to determine the future of the LCA.

-----------------------------

I bid goodbye to the journalist and walk into the Qatar National Convention Centre.  It's not until I’m through the security x-ray machines, and down the hallway with the moving sidewalk that I realize there is only one way to fully capture the excruciating non-drama incrementally unfolding in the conference centre.

People come to COPs dressed as polar bears.  I’ve run into carrots, and robbers, and alarm clocks.   There was a whole band of Robin Hoods in the hall way this afternoon. I’ve never run into a Vladmir and Estragon pairing but maybe its time.  We are, collectively, waiting for Godot.

You Can Always Count on the Vegans

Two young women in abaya and a young man in white thobe are downright giddy with excitement.  One of the women fixes her head scarf and checks her make-up one more time.  Her brilliant pink lipstick perfectly matches the arabic lettering on the large microphone held by the reporter.  Her excitement is both palpable and  understandable.  She has just helped organize one of the first protest marches in Qatari history and its about to begin.

The small park is sandwiched between the Persian Gulf and the new part of Doha.  One one side tankers and ships hover in the morning haze, on the other surreal architectural creations proclaim Doha’s intention of being the “Gate to the Future”.   Two grassy hummocks, constantly irrigated by water drawn from the sea and desalinized by gas-fired plants, provide definition in the otherwise flat area.  I climb one and look out over the 200-300 people gathering together.   Most are youth, almost all of them have cameras, one is dressed as a polar bear.

The march was supposed to run promptly from 8 -10 am but by 8:30 we have not yet started due to the sheer volume of photo shoots being conducted.   A young woman holding a sign urging “Climate Action Now”  is precariously balanced on a man’s shoulders and draws a crowd of madly snapping cameras.   Beside me a Chinese woman interviews two Qatari woman in broken English.   And in front of it all a brilliant yellow banner emblazoned with the slogan “Arabs Lead Now” declares the arrival of Arab youth activists on the climate scene and attracts a frenzy of photographers. 

As we mill around long past the official starting hour I start to wonder when it will start until I spot him. This might be Qatar’s first protest march but somethings are apparently universal and a young man with a megaphone is one of them.  Sure enough, once he has judged that enough people have congregated the young man in white a thobe with the megaphone starts the charge.  We walk up a slight hill – cleverly chosen to maximize photographic coverage – and start the march. 

I move through the crowd.  For awhile I walk with the European and Japanese dominated WWF contingent, all wearing their matching “I speak Panda” shirts.  I slow down and catch the People’s Power group in their brilliant red and green shirts from the trade union organized march in Durban last year.   The Canadians are easy to spot.  The Canadian Youth delegation – as always a bastion of creative protest – have adapted the red squares that took Montreal by storm.  Each member of the CYD is sporting a red circle in solidarity with all the places worldwide impacted by climate change.

And as I walk I think about what this protest march really means.  Behind me I hear a group shouting the Latin American rally cry, “El Pueblo, Unido, Jamas sera Vencido”.  In front of me a youth member of PACJA, the Pan African Climate Justice Alliance, declares “there is no noise in this march, we need some noise” and reminiscent of the march in Durban – the loudest march I have ever witnessed by far - starts calling out “Climate Justice Now, Climate Justice Now”.   

This small sea of people have come from every corner of the world.  They can do nothing in particular.  They are not in negotiating rooms.  They are not possessed of large amounts of capital.  They are not going to revolutionize social systems over-night. But they are here.  Each in their own way, each with their own traditions of dissent, each with their own voice.  And when they leave, just as they have brought something to the table, each will leave with something new.   

If His Excellency Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah was the one to propose we should “make love not war” it's the Vegan’s who follow it up.  Dressed in white and leisurely strolling at the back of the demonstration they are singing, “all we are saying, is give peace a chance”.  From the giant carrot costumes in Copenhagen, to the free faux-meat sandwiches in Durban, you can always count on the Vegans to get the last word at a COP.

John Lennon Would be Proud

“Make Love not War” is the last thing I would have expected His Excellency Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah to say. For over 30 years his Excellency has served as Qatar’s minister for portfolios such as Finance, Industry, and Energy, eventally became the head of Qatar Petroleum and is now the Deputy Prime Minister. The host country’s minister of Environment is traditionally appointed COP president.  This year marks a change and H.E. Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah is at the helm.

His Excellency’s office has arranged for an “informal dialogue” to allow civil society observers a chance to engage with him.  Enthroned on a dais with a staff member on one side, and the lead Qatari negotiator on the other, His Excellency is either expertly – or completely ineptly – handling questions from observers.  It is unnerving that I cannot entirely decide which it is. 

When a Palestinian woman challenges him for stating that agriculture is not an issue because there are no farmers in the Middle East, he immediately reverses his statement, boldly asserts that Palestinians are the “most famous farmers in the world,” and manages to take a parting shot at ethanol producers for using land that could have been used for food (ahem, who could also be competitors for Qatari gas) -- all in one smooth stream-of-consciousness loop.

An Indigenous man from the Amazon asks him to provide greater support and visibility for Indigenous Peoples in the negotiating process.  “All Qtaris are indigenous peoples so we understand your oppression” he claims, and warmly gives his full support for all Indigenous concerns without the offer of either a single Qatari Riyal or a concrete action in the negotiations. 

A youth delegate’s hand shoots up. She asks him how he is going to speed up negotiations.   Time is running out.  Youth don’t want to inherit the earth they are being left.  He sits back, relaxes and regales us with memories from his student days in Michigan during the 1970s.  “Make Love not War”, he urges all of us, and then sighs and adds reflectively, “ah yes, I was a youth once too, and the youth, they are always wanting change……”.

The UNFCCC secretariat works throughout the year to provide support to the 195 Parties (ie. countries included in the convention) involved in the negotiations, but only the Parties can agree to a deal.  The central job of the COP President is to facilitate these negotiations.  Near the end of the dialogue an environmental NGO representative asks straight out, “what strategies do you have for facilitating the final negotiation?”

His Excellency’s answer is unaccustomly direct.  “Yes, the ministers must be managed.  We will have some roundtables, we will exclude the press, and I will tell them that they need to get along.”

While I agree that it is high time for some cooperation in the climate arena, I’m not entirely sure how successful His Excellency's admonition will be at 3 am in a room full of negotiators faced with unfinished texts haunted by the spectres of two decades of disagreement and mistrust about development, economic interests, and colonialism.  Then again, he has survived Qatari politics for over 30 years and its not like anyone else has come up with any better suggestions.  And really, all he is saying, is give peace a chance.

Legacy

“I dug my keys

into the side

of his pretty little souped up

4 wheel drive

and carved my name

into his legacy”

So croons Carrie Underwood as she describes her revenge on her boyfriend after discovering him cheating on her with a “bleached blonde” who gets drunk after “only one whiskey”.  The delegate from Angola seated beside me is bopping away in time to the music, and through the windows of the VIP luxury mini-bus – complete with white leather seats and cream satin accordian blinds – I see groups of men playing cricket in an abandoned patch of dirt.  The last time I heard this song I was perched on a tractor in Ontario but here I am, it’s Friday morning in Doha, and the Qatari weekend has begun.

COP systematically moves through the continents and each year is held in a different country.  Last year it was in Africa. This year it is Asia’s turn and Qatar is hosting with a vengeance.   In a startling departure from UNFCCC tradition, everything is organized.  Meeting rooms have enough chairs and neither delegates nor observers have found themselves seated on the floor.  Instead, the rooms echo, and only a smattering of the vast technological  resources at hand are being used. Seated in the informal consultation of SBI 37 agenda item 13 (c) I count 19 flat screen televisions – each roughly 2 x 3 feet – carefully positioned around the room.  Overhead metal beams hold two dozen massive adjustable spotlights.  None of this is in use.  Instead, across the room the delegates of China, India, Egypt, Argentina, Indonesia, and several others are in a “huddle” with their microphones turned off.  Their voices are swallowed by the grey plush carpet covering the high-school gymnasium sized room.

Qatar is in a frenzy of growth.  During a tea break at the oppulent Diplomatic Club – one among dozens of utterly indistinquishable luxury hotel venues splayed across the city – I wander outside and see 13 cranes finishing a spread of elaborate highrises on the artificial island, “the Pearl” recently built in the Doha harbour.  Luxury, grandeur, and consumption are the bywords of this place.  In Durban I had to supply my own toilet paper.  In Doha the bathroom of my “budget” hotel is larger than my old living room and there are three chandeliers in my bedroom alone.   I ask my Indian taxi-driver if there is anywhere smaller and simpler to stay.  He laughs, “no-no, not possible” he says, “only landmarks here in Doha”.  He pauses for a second, then continues,  “Too much money.  Too much gas”. 

The juxtaposition of the Durban and Doha COPs is striking. While delegates from developing countries continue to argue that development is a crucial issue, their messages feel distanced by the air-conditioned luxury venues we are smoothly ushered in and out of.  There is no opportunity for any upsets.  Security personal are discreet, meetings rooms well organized, venues comfortable and spacious.   For the first time in my (admitedly short) COP-life, there is not an alternative people’s forum of any kind.   There has been very little angst in the leadup to this COP – most people did not even know it was happening – and yet, maybe this is exactly what makes this a dangerous COP.  If we allow outselves the luxury of forgetting what is at stake, what exactly is the legacy that will be left? 

Carrie Underwood’s cheating partner not withstanding, I expect that few of us would be satisfied with a legacy consisting of nothing more than a souped up 4 wheel drive. Of course, if the parking lots of Doha’s deluxe shopping centres are any indication, perhaps I am wrong.