Sunday, December 11, 2011

Forecast: Plate-throwing and temper tantrums until 2015

I can’t help feeling like the kid who had to leave before the party ended. Due to a pre-booked plane ticket and the expectation that the COP would finish on time, I am snuggled in my own bed halfway around the world when I finally hear the news I have been waiting for – COP 17 is over and has successfully given birth to a new acronym, which I believe I am one of the first to be using. The Ad-hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action came into life an hour ago this morning at about 6 am South Africa time. Since this may be one of the only times it is ever referred to in its full title, let me use its acronym right away, the AWG – DPEA.


Already the news calls this a ‘landmark deal’, and in some ways it is. The AWG-DPEA does not contain targets for countries to reduce their emissions. Nor is the AWG-DPEA a legal binding instrument. The AWG-DPEA is exactly what it says it is, a working group. And does it ever have its work cut out for it. Paragraph 5 of the AWG-DPEA lays it out,



the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action shall plan its work in the first half of 2012, including, inter alia, on mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, transparency of action, and support and capacity-building, drawing upon submissions from Parties and relevant technical, social and economic information and expertise.”


Now you might be scratching your heads, trying to figure out why this one and half page document that does not contain targets, doesn’t yet have a clear work plan, and is not legally binding is a landmark deal. The AWG-DPEA is important because it creates a forum for countries to keep talking and because it promises to “explore options for a range of actions that can close the ambition gap with a view to ensuring the highest possible mitigation efforts by all Parties”.


Think of the UNFCCC as a disfunctional family. The underlying tension at Durban was whether it was worth trying to be a family any longer, or if it was time to throw in the towel and divorce each other. The AWG-DPEA makes the claim that climate change is global – we are actually stuck on one planet together – which means divorce isn’t really an option. For those who read my last post, you will note the inclusion of “all parties” in this. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, whatever comes out of the AWG-DPEA will demand emission reductions from developing countries. There is no guarantee that the divisions between China, the USA, Japan, the US, Canada, India and the rest of the developing countries will not continue to stymie actual emission reductions, but there is now a place to continue having these arguments. The AWG-DPEA is supposed to reach a final agreement by 2015. Expect plate-throwing and temper tantrums in the interrim.


All this sounds positive, in a tension laced kind of way. And it sort of is. However. However, don’t forget that the current pledges of emission reductions are tiny compared to where they need to be if there is any hope of maintaining emission levels below those scientistis suggest would be prudent. There may be a global agreement to keep talking, but there is not a global agreement that mandates emission reductions and frankly, there never will be. The UNFCCC does not and can not reduce emissions inside soverign states. Countries reduce emissions. Provinces and states reduce emissions. City planners reduce emissions. People reduce emissions.


This issue is far too important to let countries have free rein in the international sphere – I am unconvinced that they are adequate guardians of the global good. Instead, if the AWG-DPEA and its seed of hope for global cooperation is the child of the UNFCCC, let us be the village that raises it.





P.S. Twitter feeds tell me that an extension of the Kyoto Protocol and an agreement on the $100 billion Green Climate Fund were also reached, but I can’t yet find the actual texts. Following the sage advice to get rid of one thing each time you bring something new into your home, there is also agreement to retire the AWG-LCA in a year. Everybody in Durban has probably collapsed in heap, and we won’t have any clarity about the details for a little while. Meanwhile, the UK dawn has finally arrived and it is time for a cup of tea.

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